Expecting to Win: The Peyton Manning Effect

Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning
By Jeffrey Beall [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Peyton Manning recently broke the NFL’s single season touchdown record. Just last week he broke the single season passing yardage record (sort of, a review showed one pass was actually a lateral and probably shouldn’t have counted). All this following a series of surgeries on his neck in 2011 that at one point left his throwing arm virtually useless. After missing the entire 2011 season, he was dropped by the only team he had ever played on as a professional.

In 2012, he signed with the Denver Broncos and on opening day,we all had questions about his ability to perform at his previous level. Many of us worried he wouldn’t be the same or even worse, that he might be further injured. Instead, he went on to win a comeback player of the year award. Now this season, he has set multiple records and is poised to continue his outstanding performance in the playoffs.


Now I really like Peyton Manning but I’m a lifelong Dallas Cowboys fan. I have been cheering them on since I was old enough to understand what football was. I’ve enjoyed the Staubach years and reveled in the glory years of the mid-1990’s. The last 15 or so years haven’t been so kind. As I’ve become fond of saying, “it’s hard to be a Cowboys fan”. One of the most frustrating aspects is the lack of performance in spite of the tremendous amount of talent on the team.

One of the most obvious examples is the quarterback, Tony Romo. He’s a guy with an obvious natural talent who is sometimes able to pull off miraculous plays at various times throughout the game. He’s often able to orchestrate multiple scoring drives approaching the end of the game that puts his team in a position to win. Unfortunately, when it matters most, he often makes a devastating mistake. I heard an announcer once say he thinks Romo expects to fail when it’s all on the line.

Many of us watching have certainly come to expect him to fail and most of us are not that surprised when he does. It’s completely plausible that same expectation has crept into his psyche. I would argue the exact opposite phenomenon is at work with Peyton Manning. Not only does he expect to win, we expect him to win and the other players expect him to win. The expectation is based on legitimate experience, for both men.

I don’t think there is any doubt that expectations shape outcomes. There have been countless psychological studies showing the power of expectation. The whole concept of placebo effect is based on expectation. I guess the question is, how do you take someone who expects to fail and convert them into a winner? Is it possible to turn Tony Romo into Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, or Aaron Rogers?

I work mostly with people who have had their lives devastated by an addiction to alcohol or drugs. I once heard an addict early in recovery say that he keeps expecting everything to fall apart. He had become so accustomed to his plans falling apart that he didn’t know how to respond when things started going right.

He was doing what he was supposed to do and life was working the way it is supposed to work…but he didn’t trust his success. Luckily for him, he was able to maintain the changes long enough for his beliefs to adapt. He stopped expecting to fail and started to expect success in life.

Not everyone is so fortunate. A typical client at our agency is around 30 years-old, unemployed, has at least one felony conviction, a history of trauma and abuse and has been using at least once substance since around age 13 or 14. Their lives have often been defined by their failures. They expect more of the same and more often than not, so does the rest of society.

So my question is, how do we transform a client’s expectations from failure to success? How do we change OUR expectations for them? How do we convince the judges, probation officers, their families and the rest of society that the past does not have to equal the future? As always, I look forward to hearing your thoughts, ideas and observations.